Empowering Democracy Through Hopeful Mathematics

The Power of 3.5 Percent: Mobilizing for Democracy

The notion of pushing back against authoritarianism may seem overwhelming at first. However, recent movements across the United States indicate that the spirit of resistance is thriving.

The concept known as the “3.5 percent rule,” introduced by political scientist Erica Chenoweth, highlights a pivotal insight into civic engagement. Analyzing over 300 instances of nonviolent resistance, Chenoweth’s research concluded that when merely 3.5 percent of a population participates in organized civil resistance, authoritarian regimes are likely to falter.

This statistic reveals an encouraging reality: significant change does not require a majority. Instead, mobilizing just 3.5 percent can tilt the scales towards democracy.

In practice, this means that if individuals consistently partake in creative and peaceful demonstrations, history favors their cause. Frederick Douglass succinctly framed this struggle, stating, “Power concedes nothing without a struggle. Never has; never will.”

Local Mobilization: A Case Study in Western Massachusetts

For example, in western Massachusetts, combining Hampshire and Franklin counties, the total population is about 232,000. Applying the 3.5 percent principle, that equates to around 8,000 individuals. This figure encompasses not only activists but also everyday citizens: teachers, healthcare professionals, farmers, students, and families. Achieving this goal represents a feasible challenge.

As noted by Hardy Merriman, who studies civil resistance, effective movements extend beyond mere rallies and protests; they thrive on strategic and visible engagement—including petitions, strikes, boycotts, and refusing to comply with unjust policies. Everyday citizens can wield immense power in these contexts.

Additionally, Rivera Sun, a nonviolence educator, emphasizes the need for imagination within resistance movements. Successful activism not only advocates against current injustices but also envisions and strives to construct a more just society.

Examples of Community Engagement

Communities nationwide have echoed this sentiment, and partisan lines often blur as citizens unite for democracy. A few examples include:

• Valdosta, GA (pop. 32,000): 3.5 percent = 1,120 (conservative)
• Los Alamos, NM (pop. 35,000): 3.5 percent = 1,225 (moderate)
• Santa Fe, NM (pop. 88,000): 3.5 percent = 3,080 (liberal)
• Eau Claire, WI (pop. 70,000): 3.5 percent = 2,450 (moderate)
• Charlottesville, VA (pop. 44,000): 3.5 percent = 1,540 (liberal)
• Portland, ME (pop. 68,000): 3.5 percent = 2,380 (strongly supportive of democratic norms)

The Growing Movement

Recently, prominent Republican figures have expressed concerns about opposing authoritarian figures lest they face backlash. For instance, Senator Lisa Murkowski acknowledged that standing up to former President Trump can be fraught with personal and political risks. This illustrates a critical fact: the onus for democratic preservation may lie with the populace.

Historically, successful resistance movements from Chile to the Philippines show that when ordinary citizens refuse to accept illegitimate authority, meaningful change is possible. Maria Ressa, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate and journalist from the Philippines, serves as a valuable mentor for current movements, sharing insights from her battle against authoritarianism.

The Road Ahead

In the United States, with a population of 330 million, 3.5 percent translates to approximately 11.5 million advocates for democracy. This is not merely an idealistic vision—it’s a tangible strategy that continues to gain momentum across various communities.

From rural areas to urban centers, Americans are actively pushing back against authoritarianism. These movements are vibrant and energized. They signify a collective realization that progress hinges on active participation. The call to action now is to embrace determination, rather than despair. Each individual counts—one in every 28, in many areas—standing up consistently to foster transformation.

As the momentum builds, we refine our strategies and bolster our resolve. History invites us to respond affirmatively; it’s now upon us to answer that call.