U.S. online holiday sales are expected to reach approximately $253.4 billion this season, according to a new projection from Adobe Analytics released in early November. While that figure still represents year-over-year growth of 5.3%, it marks a notable slowdown compared to the 8.7% rise seen during the same period last year. The holiday shopping season, which spans from November 1 to December 31, is shaping up to reflect broader economic concerns that have been weighing on consumer sentiment for much of 2025.
Economic pressures such as persistent inflation, elevated interest rates, and slower job growth in select industries are prompting American consumers to exercise greater caution in their spending. The result is a more restrained holiday shopping environment where consumers are prioritizing essentials and budgeting more strategically. Despite the slower growth, the anticipated total of over a quarter-trillion dollars in online sales underscores that digital commerce remains strong, even as shoppers become more deliberate in their purchasing decisions.
Retailers have taken notice of this shift and are adjusting their strategies accordingly. Many are leaning heavily into promotions and early-season discounts, hoping to draw in value-conscious consumers before peak shopping days like Black Friday and Cyber Monday. These strategies are increasingly focused on mobile platforms, which Adobe predicts will account for a record 56.1% of all online spending during the season. As mobile devices become the primary tool for browsing, comparing prices, and finalizing purchases, retailers are optimizing mobile checkout experiences and ensuring that their websites perform seamlessly across devices.
One of the more notable trends gaining traction this year is the growing reliance on “buy-now-pay-later” (BNPL) services. These financing options, which allow consumers to spread out payments over several weeks or months, are forecast to account for over $20 billion in holiday sales—an increase of roughly 11% from last year. The appeal of BNPL lies in its flexibility, offering a way for households to manage cash flow during a high-expense period without turning to high-interest credit cards. This is especially attractive in an economic environment where many families are already feeling stretched.
Women, in particular, are at the forefront of this evolving holiday shopping landscape. Often balancing work, childcare, household budgeting, and gift planning, they are especially attuned to digital deal-hunting and strategic spending. For many, this means starting holiday shopping earlier than in previous years to take advantage of rolling promotions and avoid last-minute price spikes. The increased use of mobile platforms, coupled with flexible financing, allows them to maintain control over household finances while still meeting seasonal expectations.
While retailers continue to offer a wide array of promotions, they are also working to preserve profit margins. This delicate balance involves not only offering attractive deals but also investing in supply chain efficiency, customer service, and brand loyalty initiatives. Some companies are offering exclusive bundles or personalized product recommendations to stand out in a crowded marketplace. Others are promoting loyalty programs that reward repeat customers with added savings or faster shipping.
Despite economic headwinds, analysts remain optimistic that consumer demand will remain resilient. Much of this confidence stems from recent data showing steady, if modest, income growth and continued low unemployment, even as economic uncertainty lingers. Adobe’s forecast suggests that while the pace of growth is slowing, overall spending levels remain historically high, and digital platforms continue to capture a growing share of holiday purchases.
Looking ahead, the performance of key shopping days will be closely watched. Cyber Monday, which remains the single largest online shopping day of the season, is projected to generate about $14.2 billion in sales. The success of these marquee events will offer further insight into how consumers are adapting to inflationary pressures and whether the season can outperform expectations despite macroeconomic concerns.
In the broader context, the holiday sales outlook is not only a measure of retail performance but also a barometer of consumer confidence. As families across the country weigh spending decisions against financial uncertainty, their choices will influence not just retail revenues but also economic forecasts heading into 2026. For businesses, policymakers, and consumers alike, this year’s holiday season is a test of adaptability and resilience in the face of an evolving economic landscape.
